The US says an Israel-Hamas ceasefire is close. What’s really happening?

The US claims that progress has been made on a ceasefire deal between Israel and Hamas — and that the Israeli side has already accepted a framework the US calls a “bridging proposal” that would end the nearly 11 months of brutal fighting in Gaza.

The announcement is reminiscent of one President Joe Biden made in June; then, he seemed to suggest Israel had created a promising ceasefire proposal. That proposal ultimately went nowhere, and Israel pushed back on Biden’s description of the plan.

This time, Israel has yet to publicly embrace the “bridging proposal,” though reports indicate Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is against concessions that would allow for a successful deal. President Joe Biden reportedly spoke with Netanyahu Wednesday, urging him to back down on demands regarding Israeli control of parts of Gaza. Meanwhile, Hamas claims the deal is a “reversal” of previous agreements and has claimed that the US is imposing new Israeli demands upon the agreement.

Multiple rounds of ceasefire talks have already fallen through; the last successful effort to end the violence — albeit temporarily — was in November 2023, when a week-long pause in fighting allowed for the return of 105 Israeli hostages and the release of about 240 Palestinian prisoners held by Israel.

The goals of November’s agreement were limited to the prisoner exchange and getting humanitarian aid into Gaza. Now, the objective is to end the fighting that has killed at least 40,000 Palestinians, according to Gaza’s health ministry. The extent of the devastation, with many bodies buried under rubble, means that the real death toll is likely even higher — possibly by tens of thousands.

The major sticking point in the negotiations, both now and earlier this summer, seems to be a fundamental disagreement about what a ceasefire might look like. Hamas wants a permanent ceasefire in Gaza, while Netanyahu has said an end to the fighting can only come once Hamas is destroyed — despite a growing consensus that such a goal is unfeasible. Furthermore, Israel has indicated it would like to have a security presence in Gaza post-war, something Hamas will not agree to.

Reaching a real ceasefire agreement has only become more urgent as Israeli settlers in the West Bank continue to attack Palestinians, and as the risk of a regional war that could come to encompass Lebanon and Iran looks increasingly serious. But despite the renewed attention on the negotiations, there’s reason to be skeptical that this time is any different.

Why the prospect of a ceasefire remains dim

The latest ceasefire news is just the latest in a long string of almost-but-not-quite proposals since November’s week-long ceasefire ended (both sides claim the other broke that agreement).

Most recently, in a ceasefire proposal issued by the US on Friday Israel reportedly included a demand for control over two areas of Gaza. One of these is what Israel calls the Philadelphi corridor, which runs along the border between Egypt and Gaza. Israel claims it needs to occupy the area to prevent Hamas from using the region to resupply its war material.

The other area Israel wants to control is what’s known as the Netzarim corridor, which divides northern and southern Gaza. Israel similarly says it needs security forces in that area to block the flow of weapons. For Hamas, however, additional Israeli control over Palestinian territory is likely to be a nonstarter, reminiscent of Israeli efforts to divide the Palestinian people geographically.

Friday’s deal also did not provide for a permanent ceasefire, another of Hamas’s primary demands.

The last major ceasefire plan was initially negotiated back in May. Hamas agreed to the proposal, and the United Nations endorsed it, but that deal was reportedly scuppered when Netanyahu introduced new conditions, including control over the Philadelphi corridor and a demand that Israel screen Palestinians returning to their homes in the north, according to the BBC.

Part of what has made a ceasefire deal difficult is the fact that Israel has the military edge: The balance of power in Gaza has always been asymmetrical. The Israeli military is powerful in its own right; aid from the US, including the delivery of 500-pound bombs, compounds the advantage. And Israel has continued attacking Gaza amid the ceasefire talks, reportedly killing at least 12 in an attack on a school in Gaza City Tuesday.

But Hamas has a degree of leverage “they’ve never had before” in previous conflicts in Gaza, Joost Hiltermann, the director of the Middle East and North Africa program at the International Crisis Group, said: The group still holds 105 Israeli hostages taken in October 2023.

The fact that hostages remain in Gaza has only been marginally effective in securing Hamas’s demands, however; a weeklong ceasefire and the return of hundreds of Palestinian prisoners is a far cry from a permanent one and full Israeli troop withdrawal from Gaza.

It’s also not clear how many of those hostages are still alive; on Monday Israel retrieved the bodies of six hostages from Khan Younis in Gaza. And Hamas has continued its attacks amid the ceasefire negotiations, including an apparent suicide attack in Tel Aviv Sunday, for which the group has claimed credit.

Further complicating negotiations is a change in Hamas’s leadership.

Following the assassination of its political leader and chief negotiator Ismael Haniyeh in Tehran last month, likely by Israel, Yahya Sinwar, the head of Hamas’s militant wing, has assumed the top job. Sinwar, Hiltermann told Vox, is a “very stubborn fellow.”

“He doesn’t give in. I think he would much rather be martyred, in their term — killed — than concede,” Hiltermann said. “So that doesn’t mean he doesn’t want to cease fire, but he wants a ceasefire on terms that he thinks are good for the Palestinian cause. If he cannot get them, then he will say to Israel, ‘Continue to fight.’”

The US role in ending the war – and why talks continue to fall short

As the latest ceasefire news demonstrates, the US also remains a major player in negotiations.

The scale of US military assistance to Israel could provide a point of leverage to push Netanyahu and Israel toward a deal; at least publicly, however, Blinken and Biden have shown little appetite to use that leverage, even while pushing for a ceasefire and telling Israel that its war is unwinnable. Vox reached out to the White House and the State Department for further clarification on the status of the bridging negotiations, but did not receive a response by publication time.

In other words, there’s no clear reason to assume a breakthrough is truly imminent. “Every public indication that the principals are giving is that we’re not close,” said Jon Alterman, the director of the Middle East program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. “And that either reflects a) an underlying reality or b) the fact that each side is negotiating effectively to try to extract the maximum from its adversary — but I can’t tell you which of those is true.”