The grand ‘treaty’ that could derail GOP gerrymandering

In July, President Donald Trump asked Texas Republicans to carve out additional GOP-leaning congressional districts. That effort, intended to maintain Republican control of the House of Representatives following the 2026 midterms, ignited a gerrymandering arms race. California Democrats have asked voters to approve a new map that would create five new Democratic-leaning districts. Now, Missouri lawmakers have moved to draw one new red-leaning district, and Indiana, Florida and Nebraska face mounting pressures from the White House to redistrict in the GOP’s favor.

The absence of any federal redistricting standards means that states have been left to fight on an uneven playing field. This poses a particular problem to the 11 states — mostly Democratic-leaning — that have adopted redistricting commissions for drawing congressional maps. Although well-intentioned, the positive impact of these commissions is limited so long as many states can act in bad faith and take advantage of their existence. Until Congress enacts a permanent, nationwide ban on political and racial gerrymandering, the states with these commissions should set them aside. This move may seem counterintuitive but it is the best way to fight for fairness in the name of all Americans.

Redistricting commissions are intended to improve American democracy through better representation and fairer elections. In states that have adopted them, these commissions have responsibility for drawing maps, rather than the partisan state legislatures. The commissioners are tasked with creating competitive districts that don’t favor one political party over another. The fact that these commissions operate in less than a dozen states, however, greatly limits their impact. More pressingly, their adoption predominantly in states governed by Democrats creates a dynamic ripe for partisan exploitation — like what we’re seeing now.

Of the 11 states with redistricting commissions, eight have Democratic governors — including California, New York, Michigan and New Jersey. Those eight states account for 132 congressional seats, or 30% of all seats in the House. Meanwhile, the three Republican-governed states with redistricting commissions account for a combined 15 House seats.

Every federal election cycle, then, this imbalance gives lawmakers in states without commissions — especially in Republican-governed states — outsized influence in determining the balance of power in the House. In this moment, the skewed nature of these commissions leaves many Democratic-governed states fighting for a representative House with one hand tied behind their backs.

Just as California took a vital step in countering Texas’ gerrymander, states that can neutralize gerrymandered districts should do so. But ultimately, this only provides a temporary solution. Most redistricting takes place every 10 years, following the decennial census. After the 2030 census, even more states will have political cover to draw gerrymandered maps. States such as Texas and Missouri have clearly embraced a no-holds-barred approach to redistricting and are unlikely to reverse course. States with redistricting commissions will find themselves in an even more disadvantaged political position in just a few short years.

There’s only one solution that would permanently prevent a redistricting scramble like this year’s from happening again: Congress has to pass legislation to ban partisan and racial gerrymandering. But while most voters oppose gerrymandering, such a bill is unlikely to pass anytime soon.

In the absence of federal action, then, states with redistricting commissions should adopt a “treaty,” in the form of legislation or a ballot measure. The states would call on Congress to pass a ban on partisan and racial gerrymandering prior to the redistricting cycle after the 2030 census, and would commit to setting their commissions aside until Congress acts. This is the only way to ensure states can meet not just this moment, but also the even bigger gerrymandering war down the road. It’s also perhaps the only real way for states trying to neutralize power grabs to increase the pressure on Congress to act.

Every American has a stake in this arms race, because the balance of power in the House impacts the lives of all Americans. For proof, look no further than recent votes by representatives to strip health care and food assistance away from millions of Americans. It’s no coincidence that Trump is demanding gerrymandering when his approval rating remains in negative territory and his “big beautiful bill” deeply unpopular. In attempting to rig the Republicans’ odds of holding the House, Trump is trying to eliminate the accountability that elections bring and circumvent the will of the American people.

With stakes this high, states with redistricting commissions should use the heightened public attention to hasten preparations for the looming gerrymandering wars. The embrace of commissions was done in good faith, but it won’t stem the tide of gerrymandering or attacks on our elections. State lawmakers must pause the use of these commissions until they no longer pose a political risk ripe for exploitation. Until all states are forced to play by the same rules, our elections cannot be free and fair.

This article was originally published on MSNBC.com