Odds that Louisiana sees a Hurricane this week?
The National Hurricane Center has now upped the chance for further development of this tropical system to 70% over the next 48 hours and 90% for the next week. Northward movement is expected mid-week. Models are becoming more decisive of a landfalling hurricane in Florida by Thursday night. This keeps Louisiana on the west side (dry side) of the storm.
Morning satellite imagery indicates much more thunderstorm activity in the area of concern. Invest 97-L will be the short term name for this until a closed low forms – and it takes on the name Helene.
The deciding factor on how far east this storm goes – is the placement, timing, and strength of upper level low passing through the center of the country mid-week. This low will have a cold front trailing it, funneling in cooler and drier air into the gulf coast. This WILL interact with the tropical cycle… exactly how? We still are not 100% on the details, but as of now the upper level low looks to co-circulate with the tropical cyclone, lifting it to the north and slightly west after landfall.
Since we are forecasted to be on the west side, our impacts will be significantly mitigated.
