This Treatable Disease Could Kill 2 Million People Over the Next 5 Years
NEED TO KNOW
- Tuberculosis cases could surge in the coming years, with more than 2 million dying from the disease, a new study says
- The research, published in the journal Plos, modeled the outcome of the funding cuts to USAID and predicted a spike in deaths and illnesses
- “While some nations may adapt, short-term disruptions will severely impact vulnerable populations,” the study says
Tuberculosis could cause more than 2 million deaths and 10 million people to be sickened by 2030, warns a new study that looks at the impact of funding cuts.
“The loss of U.S. funding endangers global TB control efforts … and potentially puts millions of lives at risk,” a study, published in the journal Plos, said. The research examines the February gutting of USAID — the US agency that delivered food, medicine and other assistance to developing countries — by Elon Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency, whereby the foreign aid agency’s staff was reduced from more than 10,000 to 290.
The study modeled three scenarios: minimal impact, where countries recover tuberculosis service in 3 months; moderate impact, where it takes a year to recover service; and the worst-case scenario, which is “long-term service reduction” in 26 countries with a high burden of tuberculosis cases.
According to the study, the best-case scenario of additional tuberculosis cases in the next five years were 630,000 new cases, and 99,000 new deaths. The moderate impact scenario predicts 1.66 million new cases, and 268,600 deaths.
The worst-case scenario — where there’s a long-term disruption of service — estimates 10.67 million new cases, and 2,243,700 deaths.
The countries impacted include: Afghanistan, Angola, Bangladesh, Cameroon, Congo, Ethiopia, Ghana, India, Indonesia, Kenya, Madagascar, Mozambique, Myanmar, Nepal, Nigeria, Pakistan, Peru, Philippines, South Africa, Tanzania,Thailand, Uganda, Ukraine, Vietnam, Zambia and Zimbabwe.
But tuberculosis is also a concern stateside — in January, Kentucky recorded its largest outbreak ever of the disease, and some said it may have been the largest U.S. surge of cases ever. At press time, there were 68 active cases and 107 latent cases of tuberculosis, per the Kentucky Division of Public Health.
Tuberculosis, as PBS notes, was called consumption when it killed one in seven people in the 1800s. Symptoms include a bad cough, chest pain, and coughing up blood. The Cleveland Clinic says that while most people’s immune systems are able to fight the infection, it may remain in their system as a “latent TB infection” — later becoming active if your immune system is weakened.
The disease, caused by the bacterium Mycobacterium tuberculosis, is treated with specific antibiotics — sometimes for as long as nine months, the Cleveland Clinic says. It can be fatal if not treated.
As California Rep. Sara Jacobs told PEOPLE when USAID was gutted, “People will starve, babies will die, and poverty will skyrocket.”
“While some nations may adapt, short-term disruptions will severely impact vulnerable populations,” the study says. “Urgent alternative funding is needed to sustain critical TB prevention and treatment efforts.”
Never miss a story — sign up for PEOPLE’s free daily newsletter to stay up-to-date on the best of what PEOPLE has to offer, from celebrity news to compelling human interest stories.
Read the original article on People
