The Davante Adams trade probably won’t be great for Jets, or Raiders either

The New York Jets keep digging the hole deeper.

They put everything into one shot this season with Aaron Rodgers at quarterback. They’re 2-4, one of the most disappointing teams in the league. They have fired their head coach, Robert Saleh, and in their first game without him they made a month’s worth of mistakes and lost a big game to the Buffalo Bills.

If the Jets had won that game, Tuesday’s trade for Davante Adams would have made more sense. Now it seems like they’re chasing losses.

The Jets sent a conditional third-round draft pick that can become a second to the Las Vegas Raiders for Adams. The whole Adams situation isn’t the best look for the Raiders either, but we’ll come back to that. For now it’s the Jets, already all-in, reaching in their pocket to put more chips in the middle but with a bad hand.

There’s a scenario in which this all works out for New York. But you have to tell a fairly unbelievable story to get there.

Jets’ Davante Adams trade doesn’t solve their issues

Adams essentially replaces Mike Williams as the Jets’ No. 2 receiver, a few months after the Jets signed Williams to a $10 million deal as part of their veteran shopping spree. In a perfect world Adams is the All-Pro who Aaron Rodgers remembers from his Green Bay Packers days. In reality, he’s a 32-year-old receiver whose numbers were way down last season — 1,516 yards and 15.2-yard average in 2022 to 1,144 and 11.1 in 2023 — and is joining a new team midseason.

By the time Adams gets going in this Jets offense, if he ever does, it might be too late.

Adams could be a big help, giving the Jets a needed secondary option in the passing game after Garrett Wilson (though Allen Lazard has been quite productive) and it could help the Jets take off. But what’s the real ceiling for this team?

The Jets are two games behind the Bills now, and the Bills have a road win over New York for tiebreaker purposes. They don’t play Buffalo again until Dec. 29 in Orchard Park. If the Jets don’t rally to overtake the Bills in the AFC East, the fight for a wild-card spot might not be as tough as first anticipated due to down seasons from the Cincinnati Bengals and Miami Dolphins. Prudently, the Jets would have been better off looking toward what comes next rather than shipping off what might be a top-75 draft pick. The Jets are a team that has played well in just one game all season, a win over the hapless New England Patriots (1-5), which makes the confidence that Jets owner Woody Johnson showed Tuesday seem silly.

An optimistic Woody Johnson arrives at the owners meeting in Atlanta. I asked if the season is still salvageable. “Salvageable? We’re going to kick…you can fill the word in.”

— Judy Battista (@judybattista) October 15, 2024

For this to all feel like a success, Adams would have to have a nearly immediate impact, reverse a troubling downward career trend, the 2-4 Jets would have to go about 8-3 to make the playoffs, then in the playoffs they would have to get on a hot streak against division winners who look way better than them right now. Maybe Jets fans would be happy with a playoff appearance and a one-and-done exit. It has been 14 years since they made the postseason.

Even for that, the Jets would have to be a different team than they’ve shown the past six weeks. Adams doesn’t fix all the issues with penalties, he won’t make the offensive line better and he won’t help kicker Greg Zuerlein out of his slump either.

Why didn’t the Raiders trade Adams before?

The Raiders’ side of the deal makes more sense. They aren’t paying any more of Adams’ salary in the trade. That makes the dead salary-cap hits a manageable $13.67 million this year and $15.7 million in 2025, according to Spotrac. It’s a significant cap savings for a player who had a $44.1 million cap hit coming next season.

But the whole situation has been odd. The Raiders don’t have many stars and Adams was a player who was front and center late last season in getting Antonio Pierce the permanent head coaching job. If the Raiders wanted to move away from one of their only marketable stars just two years after a major trade for him, why not do it in March when his value would have been higher?

Switching lanes six games into the season, when the Raiders aren’t any better or worse than expected, makes it seem like Las Vegas doesn’t have a plan. Getting a conditional third-round draft pick for Adams is fine but it’s not transformative. At least there’s more salary-cap room for next season, although probably no enticing quarterback to spend it on.

Maybe it works out for everyone. The Jets make the playoffs with a new-look offense. The Raiders wisely use all that extra salary-cap space next offseason to take a big step in their never-ending rebuild. But at the moment, it’s hard to find a clear winner to Tuesday’s big trade.