Israel’s initial dismissal of US’ ‘breakthrough’ Lebanon ceasefire deal creates confusion

Senior US officials were practically triumphant Wednesday night: The United States and a large number of its allies had nailed down a proposal after days of feverish talks that would put in place a ceasefire across the Israel-Lebanon border.

In a hastily arranged call with reporters just moments after the release of a joint statement, top administration officials hailed the framework as “an important breakthrough.” The 21-day pause in fighting that the nations were proposing would give time for diplomacy and could prevent a full-fledged war from breaking out between Israel and Hezbollah.

Those officials were clear: The question was not if Israel and Hezbollah would accept the ceasefire proposal, but precisely when. Both Israel and Hezbollah were “familiar with the text,” one official said, and the US felt comfortable going public with the framework, with the understanding that both sides were ready to sign on.

But only hours later, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu would throw cold water on the multi-national proposal. First, the prime minister’s office released a statement saying any reports of an imminent ceasefire was “incorrect” and that the IDF would continue fighting with “full force.”

Then, the prime minister himself told the press as he got off his plane in New York City: “My policy, our policy, is clear: We continue to hit Hezbollah with all our might. We will not stop until we achieve all our goals.”

Some 24 hours after the White House’s announcement of the ceasefire proposal, there has still been no indication that Israel and Hezbollah are ready to agree to it. Israel’s initial response was clearly not the reaction the White House had anticipated, and it raised immediate question of why, if Israel was on board with the proposal, its leader appeared so eager to dismiss it.

“We are shocked,” said one US official, underscoring deep frustration after they had hoped Israel would accept the proposal.

“Not a complete surprise, but also not helpful,” a second US official said.

There were quiet rumblings in Washington that domestic politics could be at play for Netanyahu, as right-wing Israeli ministers – whom Netanyahu had depended upon to maintain his governing coalition – expressed indignation at reports of a US-backed ceasefire.

One US source who suggested that the Israeli government was being swayed by the negative reaction to the proposal at home expressed frustration, saying the US would not have come out with such optimism had there not been strong private indications that the Israelis were prepared to accept the framework.

The source said they did not expect negotiations to wrap up in the coming days, saying they expected the process to be long. And as long as Israel does not publicly accept it, they added, Hezbollah won’t feel pressure to either.

American officials’ confidence in announcing the proposal on Wednesday had been derived, in part, because they were dealing with Ron Dermer, one of Netanyahu’s closest confidants, as they wrote and revised the statement’s text. Discussions on the ceasefire began with a conversation Monday between Dermer and Jake Sullivan, Biden’s national security adviser.

The impression the US officials received was that Netanyahu would support a pause in fighting, and they were encouraged to work with French officials to complete a statement that urged a 21-day ceasefire.

Speaking Thursday, French President Emmanuel Macron said it would be a “mistake” for Netanyahu to reject the ceasefire, but added the United States would need to increase pressure on Israel to accept its terms.

Netanyahu’s apparent reversal amounted to a major disappointment, but for some officials it also underscored a reality that has existed for months: Netanyahu’s willingness to break publicly and openly with Biden, particularly when he faces internal political opposition in Israel.

In a statement released Thursday night, the prime minister’s office said that “Israel shares the aims of the U.S.-led initiative of enabling people along our northern border to return safely and securely to their homes.”

“Israel appreciates the US efforts,” the statement said, and promised that discussions would continue “in the coming days.”

Meanwhile, White House officials had been left confronting a barrage of questions from reporters throughout the day on Thursday – and had no good answers.

Asked about the apparent disconnect between the US and Israel, White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre said the multi-nation statement was “indeed coordinated with the Israeli side.” Discussions between the negotiations parties in New York are “ongoing,” she continued, but failed to explain why Netanyahu and his office appeared wholly uninterested in agreeing to the temporary ceasefire.

White House spokesman John Kirby was even more blunt in acknowledging that he had no good explanation for Netanyahu’s comments. “I can’t speak for Prime Minister Netanyahu, I can’t answer the question why he said what he said,” he told reporters.

“What I can tell you is that statement we worked on last night wasn’t just drawn up in a vacuum,” Kirby added. “It was done after careful consultation, not only with the countries that signed on to it, but Israel itself.”

Kirby even acknowledged that the plan would not have been released Wednesday night had the US not believed Netanyahu and his government was on board.

For now, administration officials continue to insist that discussions are ongoing and expressed hope that news could come within hours. Secretary of State Antony Blinken met with top Israeli officials in New York Thursday afternoon, even as many US officials were open to the possibility that Netanyahu may not get on board.

Dermer and Israeli Ambassador Michael Herzog demurred when asked by CNN ahead of that meeting if they are going to accept the ceasefire proposal between Israel and Hezbollah.

Dermer quipped that “less is more” when speaking as a diplomat, and pointed out that their day of meetings was only just getting started.