AST Weather Blog: How late-season tropical systems could signal colder weather ahead

As we move into mid-November, we’d usually expect to see a slowdown in tropical storm development. However, this season has been anything but typical. So far, as of November 12th, we’ve seen 17 named storms in the Atlantic Basin.

Right now, we’re closely watching a system in the western Caribbean. As of 5 p.m. on Tuesday, there’s a 90% chance it could develop into a named storm, potentially becoming Sara. Current models suggest it might strengthen into a hurricane, which could impact parts of Florida by the middle of next week.

When tropical systems affect the southeastern U.S. this late in the season, they often interact with strong cold fronts pushing down from the central U.S. That seems to be the case for next week as well.

Because tropical systems spin counterclockwise, the west side of the storm could actually pull colder air much farther south than usual. While this isn’t a certainty, it’s something the models have been hinting at.

Additionally, a busy second half of the hurricane season often lines up with colder-than-average Decembers. We only have to look back to 2022 for a recent example. After Hurricane Nicole hit Florida in mid-November, it was only a few weeks before a strong cold front brought pipe-bursting cold to Arkansas just in time for Christmas.

While nothing is guaranteed, this could be a preview of what we might see as we close out 2024. Even if December ends up warmer than average overall, we could still experience those sudden cold snaps that leave a lasting impression.