Masters picks: Why every contender will, and won’t, win at Augusta National
The Masters tees off on Thursday, starting golf’s major season in the finest way possible. This year, a whole lot of contenders are playing very well coming into the week, but only one can go home with the kind of apparel you can’t buy at the merch shop. Here’s our argument for why each of the top 10 betting favorites will win … and why they won’t.
Scottie Scheffler (+450 to win via BetMGM)
Why he will win: Because he’s Scottie Scheffler, because he’s the greatest player in the game right now, because he’s already won two of these things and knows exactly what he’s doing here already.
Why he won’t win: As mighty as Scheffler is, he’s on what qualifies for him as a lull — no victories so far this season. He only has two top-5 finishes in six events this year. (Yes, he has finished in the top 25 in every event. We have to work to find problems with Scottie’s game.)
Rory McIlroy (+650)
Why he will win: Nobody’s playing at a higher level right now than McIlroy, who has two victories in five events this year. Outside of Scheffler, he’s been the best player in the game over the last five years. Kick at the door enough times, and it has to open, right? Right … ?
Why he won’t win: How best to put this? McIlroy has had some, uh, troubles closing out majors lately. You might have heard something about it. The gremlins are in his head, and they’ve built cathedrals.
Collin Morikawa (+1400)
Why he will win: Simply one of the best statistical golfers in the game right now. He ranks first in shots gained on approach and second in shots gained overall, meaning he’s putting the rest of the field behind him with every swing.
Why he won’t win: Morikawa is great at getting to the top of leaderboards. Morikawa is not great at staying at the top of leaderboards. In 126 PGA Tour events, he has 11 runner-up finishes — nearly twice the number of victories (6) in his career. Already this year, he has two solo second finishes. Get it across the finish line, Collin!
Bryson DeChambeau (+1600)
Why he will win: DeChambeau leveled up last year when he won the U.S. Open at Pinehurst, and he’s become a YouTube icon. A Masters title would be the next stage in his Content Creator evolution.
Why he won’t win: Before his T6 last year, DeChambeau had struggled at Augusta, and the weight of the place seemed to be overwhelming him. Maybe that’s why he hit 393 balls on the range Tuesday.
Ludvig Åberg (+2000)
Why he will win: The Swedish assassin — some call him “Golf Lundgren” — is already one of the sharpest shooters in the game, and he’s coming off a debut major season where he finished runner-up in Augusta. Expect to hear his name for the next two decades or so.
Why he won’t win: He’s struggling a bit of late, with two straight missed cuts — not the kind of form you want coming into the Masters.
Justin Thomas (+2200)
Why he will win: Thomas is a two-time major winner who currently ranks 8th in shots gained overall — a reasonable predictive stat for the Masters. He has two top-10 finishes at Augusta, and he’s coming off a solo 2nd at the Valspar Championship.
Why he won’t win: Thomas has struggled lately in Augusta, missing the last two cuts.
Xander Schauffele (+2200)
Why he will win: This time last year, Schauffele had zero majors and faced serious questions about whether he could ever close a major. Two victories later and nobody’s asking that; they’re just asking when the next one will arrive. He ranks third overall in shots gained, approach to green, which is an absolutely necessary skill to master for Augusta.
Why he won’t win: X is coming off a rib injury and still needs time to round into form. Augusta National isn’t exactly a forgiving layout.
Joaquin Niemann (+3000)
Why he will win: Because the golf gods have a wicked sense of humor. A LIV player in on an invitation probably wouldn’t do much to heal golf’s divide, but it would make for some interesting talking points. Plus, if Niemann really is the world’s best golfer, like Phil Mickelson says, this should be an easy week for him.
Why he won’t win: Because despite what Phil thinks, Niemann has all of zero top-10 finishes in any major in his career. It’s time for Niemann to start backing up the talk, but a victory seems like a stretch.
Brooks Koepka (+3300)
Why he will win: Golf’s ultimate big-game hunter shows up when the spotlight is brightest. And it doesn’t get any brighter than Augusta in April.
Why he won’t win: Koepka has struggled a bit of late — no finish higher than T26 in any major last year — and doesn’t quite have the same mojo coming into April this year.
Hideki Matsuyama (+3300)
Why he will win: He already has a win here, and he already has a win this year. The more you play Augusta, the more you know how to play Augusta.
Why he won’t win: Matsuyama’s most recent form is wobbly; he’s missed two straight cuts and has zero top 10s since winning the Sentry back in early January.
Our picks to win the Masters
Jay Busbee: I’d love to swerve and pick some off-the-radar dark horse, but the truth is, the Masters is a place where the big dogs eat. All of the winners in the 2020s are former or current world No. 1s, with the exception of Matsuyama … who’s risen to No. 2. So even though he’s won two of the last three, I’m riding with Scottie Scheffler. We had a chalky Final Four, and we’re going to get a chalky Masters.
Jay Hart: It’s finally going to happen for Rory McIlroy. He’s playing as well as he ever has entering the Masters. The key for him will be Round 1. If he can avoid digging himself an early hole, as he’s been apt to do in the past, the under-par rounds he tends to shoot on the weekend will actually matter.
Ryan Young: It’s time that Collin Morikawa finally breaks through at the Masters. He seems to have the course at Augusta National figured out, with last year’s T3 run being his third straight top-10 finish there, and he’s not slowed down at all this season on Tour, either. He’s dialed in, and more than due for a green jacket and his third major.
