Tom Moran: Can a MAGA candidate win it all in New Jersey?

Is President Donald Trump about to score a huge political win by helping to elect a MAGA loyalist as governor in New Jersey, one the nation’s bluest states?

It could happen. The latest poll, from Emerson College, says that Republican Jack Ciattarelli has closed the gap with the Democrat, U.S. Rep. Mikie Sherrill, with just a month to go.

And that amazes me. Because Ciattarelli is not playing by the regular rules. He’s running hard-right, locking arms with the president and offering up a stridently conservative agenda in a blue state where Republicans make up just 25 percent of the vote. That has some political veterans scratching their heads.

“Maybe I’m old-fashioned, but I’m a sucker for the idea that you win elections by having the broadest appeal,” says Micah Rasmussen of Rider University. “But I guess these days that can be wrong. You can just stoke up your base and win by getting people out to vote. You don’t have to appeal to the middle.”

This race is one of just two gubernatorial elections this year, and all eyes are watching to see what the results say about Trump’s political strength. The other race, in Virginia, is not as close, with Democrat Rep. Abigail Spanberger, a friend and former roommate of Sherrill’s, holding a double-digit lead over Republican Winsome Earle-Sears.

CAN TRUMP FLIP IT?

If Ciattarelli can win in Blue Jersey, it would be a coup for Trump. He could legitimately claim to have pushed the line that divides red and blue northward, showing that his brand of politics has broad appeal, even in a state where Democrats run everything.

Trump lost the state by just six points last year, winning even in some Democratic strongholds like Passaic County. And the Democratic governor, Phil Murphy, is even more unpopular than Trump. To Ciattarelli’s camp, that points to an opportunity.

“What Jack argues is that if voters are unhappy with the direction New Jersey is going, then they have only one option here — to vote for someone who is going to change it,” says Chris Russell, the campaign’s strategist.

So, let’s take a deeper dive into Ciattarelli’s views.

IN FULL SUBMISSION

First, his loyalty to Trump is nearly absolute. He said in July he “doesn’t disagree with Trump on anything” and he has made exceptions to that rule only twice, both on local issues. He vows he will never file a lawsuit against the administration. So, if Trump cuts off aid to Rutgers University for political reasons, so be it. If he sends the Marines to Newark, that too. As for mass deportation, Ciattarelli says he’ll cut off aid to cities and towns that don’t allow their police to help the guys in the masks.

The big moment came last week when Trump turned off the spigot of money for a new rail tunnel under the Hudson River, even as engineers warn the aging tunnels in place now might have to be shut down for repairs at any time, an economic catastrophe for the state. Ciattarelli hasn’t offered a peep of protest.

This, folks, is full submission, like a lap dog begging for a belly rub. This from a guy who once called Trump a “charlatan” who was “not fit to be president.”

HOW IS THIS POSSIBLE?

But there’s more. Ciattarelli’s policies are decidedly conservative, as well.

He wants to give parents school vouchers they can use at religious schools, with no income limit, saying Florida is his model. He plans ferocious cuts in state aid to schools in poor cities like Newark, while increasing aid to the wealthiest suburbs.

He promises to overturn the Mt. Laurel rulings of the state Supreme Court, which limit the zoning power of suburban towns that try to block affordable housing projects. He plans to cut the highest income tax rate in half, a big win for the one-percenters. He defends Trump’s cuts to Medicaid, which the state estimates will leave 350,000 without insurance.

I called a bunch of smart Democrats and Republicans, asking them this question: How it’s possible that Ciattarelli could win Blue Jersey with an agenda like that?

THE DEMOCRATIC TIME WARP

Almost all of them cited the same two reasons: One, voters are sick of Democrats running the show, and angry about higher prices on everything from housing to electricity. And two, Sherrill is running a dull campaign, with no compelling policy vision and no imaginative tactics. She’s playing it safe.

“She is not inspiring any passion,” one Democrat with deep experience in New Jersey elections said, asking for anonymity to speak freely. “She’s nowhere to be found. She’s running a campaign that is truly out of the 1990s.”

Matt Hale, a political scientist from Seton Hall University, put it bluntly: “I honestly believe that if Trump didn’t exist, Ciattarelli would be up by 20 points. Trump is the albatross for him. And the only thing holding Democrats together is how much they hate Trump.”

STIRRING THE POT

Still, Sherrill has a golden resume and she’s undefeated in politics. She was a U.S. Navy helicopter pilot for nine years and her ads are full of pictures showing her in her flight suit as a young officer. She then worked as a federal prosecutor, before running for Congress in 2018, when she knocked off a veteran Republican who had served for more than two decades. In her campaigns and voting record, she is a centrist Democrat.

In the June primary this year, she crushed in a strong field, winning by 13 points. And the Emerson poll is an outlier, at least so far. A recent Fox News poll gave her an 8-point lead, matching a Quinnipiac poll from mid-September.

“A lot of Republicans are feeling really good right now, but she has advantages,” says Mike DuHaime, a Republican strategist who ran Chris Christie’s two successful campaigns. “There are 800,000 more Democrats, and she’s not easily characterized as far left.”

If those Democrats show up, Sherrill wins. And my guess is that they will get off the couch in November — not because Sherrill has stirred them, but because Trump has.

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