2025 NBA Awards predictions: Most Valuable Player, Defensive Player of the Year, and more
With only a few days left in the NBA’s regular season, it’s time to take a final look at the awards races. Is Shai Gilgeous-Alexander a lock to win his first MVP award? What other contests are still up for grabs?
We asked our 10-person NBA voting panel to predict the winner for each individual award. Here are the results:
Who will win Rookie of the Year?
Voting breakdown
Stephon Castle, Spurs: 100%
Back-to-back NBA Rookies of the Year in San Antonio? A year after Victor Wembanyama took home the award, it appears Castle is on his way to becoming the fourth Spur to receive the top rookie honor (Tim Duncan and David Robinson also won the award in 1998 and 1990, respectively). The No. 4 pick in the 2024 draft received every single one of our panel’s votes.
While the rookie class as a whole has been underwhelming, Castle has had a strong first year. He leads all rookies in points and field goals made, as well as steals, showing his two-way potential. The future is bright in San Antonio.
Who will win Coach of the Year?
Voting breakdown
Kenny Atkinson, Cavaliers: 80%
J.B. Bickerstaff, Pistons: 10%
Mark Daigneault, Thunder: 10%
The Coach of the Year race is typically one of the hardest awards to predict, given the number of standout candidates every year. Kenny Atkinson, in his first year in Cleveland, has led the Cavs to the East’s No. 1 seed, with his team jumping out to a 15-0 start to the season. J.B. Bickerstaff, in his first year in Detroit, has led the franchise to a historic turnaround; after finishing last season with the NBA’s worst record at 14-68, the Pistons have won 43 games in ’24-25 and are headed to the playoffs.
Meanwhile, Mark Daigneault has led the Thunder to a franchise-best 66 wins, an NBA-best 12.4 net rating and the No. 1 overall seed in the playoffs. Ultimately, our voters see Atkinson’s work on the sidelines being rewarded.
Who will win Defensive Player of the Year?
Voting breakdown
Evan Mobley, Cavaliers: 60%
Draymond Green, Warriors: 40%
If there’s one race to keep an eye on down the stretch, it’s for DPOY. With Victor Wembanyama’s season ending early due to a blood clot, the race has been wide open since the All-Star break. Heading into the final days of the season, it appears it could come down to: Evan Mobley vs. Draymond Green.
Mobley, who was named to the All-Defensive First Team in ’22-23, has been the defensive anchor for a dominant Cleveland team this season. Green, meanwhile, has been making his case of late (on and off the court) as the Warriors’ do-everything defender. In the latest BetMGM odds, Green (-500) has actually pulled ahead of Mobley (+400). With three games remaining for Cleveland, and two remaining for Golden State, this could be too close to call.
Who will win Sixth Man of the Year?
Voting breakdown
Payton Pritchard, Celtics: 90%
Malik Beasley, Pistons: 10%
The defending champion Celtics appear to be a lock to bring home more hardware this season. Our panel sees Pritchard winning the Sixth Man award with ease, with the fifth-year guard averaging 13.9 points and 3.4 assists in 28.3 minutes off the bench for the Celtics, while shooting 40.6% from 3. Pritchard would become the fourth Celtic to win the Sixth Man award, joining Malcolm Brogdon (2023), Bill Walton (1986) and Kevin McHale (1984 and 1985).
Who will win Most Improved Player?
Voting breakdown
Dyson Daniels, Hawks: 70%
Cade Cunningham, Pistons: 20%
Deni Avdija, Trail Blazers: 10%
A candidate for DPOY, Daniels appears to have a better shot at the Most Improved Player award. After being traded from New Orleans as part of the Dejounte Murray deal last summer, the third-year guard has had a breakout season in Atlanta, leading the league in steals (3.0), but also improving as a scorer. Daniels is averaging a career-high 14.3 PPG and shooting a career-high 49.5% from the field.
Cunningham received votes for his impressive season in Detroit, earning his first All-Star selection and leading the Pistons to the playoffs. Avdija has turned heads with his play in Portland this season, averaging 16.9 points and 7.3 rebounds for the Blazers.
Who will win Clutch Player of the Year?
Voting breakdown
Jalen Brunson, Knicks: 60%
Nikola Jokić, Nuggets: 20%
Stephen Curry, Warriors: 10%
Darius Garland, Cavaliers: 10%
Yes, the Clutch Award is still on the ballot. In its third year, the award seeks to celebrate the player who performs the best in high-pressure moments. This season, Brunson leads the league in points per game and field goals per game during crunch time — defined by the NBA as the final five minutes of a game with the score being within five points. One thing to watch: Brunson needs to play two of the Knicks’ final three games to be eligible for the award.
Who will win Most Valuable Player?
Voting breakdown
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: 90%
Nikola Jokić, Nuggets: 10%
As you might’ve heard by now, this year’s MVP race has been one of the best contests ever — it just might not be all that close. While Jokić is having the best statistical season in NBA history, SGA appears to be running away with his first MVP award. Last year’s MVP runner-up, Gilgeous-Alexander has led Oklahoma City to the best record in the NBA — and an 18-game lead over Jokić’s Nuggets in the standings. If he wins, SGA will become the first guard to earn MVP honors since James Harden in 2018.
Interestingly enough, when we posed the question to our panel on who should win the MVP award (not who will win), the results were much closer: 60% for SGA to 40% for Jokić.
Co-MVPs, anyone?
